For a company with a modest ~$400 million market cap (we are including 10 million $5.25 warrants that should be exercised in 1H2026), Protara Therapeutics (Nasdaq: TARA) has a busy pipeline; it may be too busy. The company’s lead program, TARA-002 for BCG-unresponsive non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC), is scheduled to report interim data by the end of February. However, after the company’s recently released highly encouraging results for TARA-002 in BCG-naive NMIBC patients and FDA alignment on an efficient single Phase 3 registrational path, one could argue that this has become the company’s lead program. Then there’s the company’s orphan disease portfolio, where in November they reported strong data for TARA-002 in lymphatic malformations (LMs). Although nowhere near as big an opportunity as NMIBC, this program could be the closest to commercialization if FDA agrees that the ongoing STARBORN study can support a BLA filing. Finally, there’s IV Choline for patients on parenteral support, where the company plans to start its pivotal study at any time.
Investors can be forgiven if they struggle with where to focus in Protara’s busy pipeline, but they certainly will not complain about a lack of newsflow in 2026. Aside from the BCG-unresponsive data in February, investors can expect the company to initiate its pivotal study in BCG-naive NMIBC patients sometime this year. The company has also indicated it plans to share interim data from its IV Choline pivotal study this year. Finally, investors can expect a key regulatory update on LMs in 1H2026 and likely additional LMs data at the International Society for the Study of Vascular Anomalies in April. Assuming FDA agrees that STARBORN can support a BLA submission for LMs, Protara should have FOUR pivotal programs ongoing this year. That raises the question of whether this is too much for a small company to handle. Given that three of the company’s programs involve TARA-002, it seems evident that if one program were to be monetized, it would be IV Choline.
Fun 2026 Prediction: Protara Out-Licenses IV Choline
Speaking of being affordable with lots of impending news, Ovid Therapeutics (Nasdaq: OVID), with its paltry $300 million market cap (we are including the first tranche of 38.5 million $1.40 warrants from the September financing that should be exercised in 1Q2026), may have an even busier 2026 than Protara. The company’s lead asset, OV329, a GABA-AT inhibitor, is currently being tested at a higher 7mg dose than was used in the Phase 1b data reported in October. Investors should learn the outcome of the 7mg study early in 2026. By midyear, Ovid will initiate Phase 2 studies in patients with focal-onset seizures (FOS) with OV329, including a 45-patient randomized controlled trial (RCT) and a smaller open-label study. The data from the open-label study should be available before year-end 2026.
Meanwhile, Ovid also has multiple programs advancing from its “big idea” KCC2 platform. Investors can expect an IND clearance for the company’s first oral KCC2 activator, OV4071, early in 2026. This IND clearance triggers a 30-day conversion period for the 38.5 million warrants we mentioned above. Ovid will start a Phase 1 study with OV4071 shortly thereafter, while in parallel initiating a ketamine challenge study that could provide proof-of-mechanism in psychoses. Data from both studies should be available this year. Before the end of the year, assuming OV4071 proves tolerable in Phase 1, Ovid plans to start proof-of-concept studies in Parkinson’s disease (PD) and Lewy body dementia (LBD) patients with psychoses. Finally, before the end of the year, Ovid expects to have an IND cleared for a second KCC2 activator, OV4041, focused on neurodevelopmental disorders.
One could argue that for a small company, Ovid also has too much going on. However, unlike Protara, which has four late-stage programs, Ovid’s programs are all early- to mid-stage, with shorter timelines to data and lower costs. By 2027, Ovid could be poised to enter registrational studies with OV329 in FOS and OV4071 in psychoses. At that point, the company may need to consider whether monetizing an asset is sensible.
Fun 2026 Prediction: Ovid Force Converts The Second (Final) Tranche Of Warrants From September Financing
Eupraxia Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: EPRX) quietly had a very productive 2025. The company steadily released positive data from its open-label Phase 2a study with EP-104GI in Eosinophilic Esophagitis (EoE). They also completed an $80 million financing that will fund them through their actively enrolling Phase 2b RCT in 120 EoE patients. EoE remains an under-the-radar indication for many biotech investors, and Eupraxia is one of only a few smaller development-stage names focused on it, which probably hurts the company’s visibility and valuation. This could change dramatically in 2026, as the company releases additional data from the Phase 2a study throughout 1H2026 and, more importantly, top-line data from the ongoing Phase 2b RCT in 2H2026. Success in the Phase 2b study would place Eupraxia squarely in the leading position to fill the gaping hole in the current EoE treatment paradigm, between off-label but cheap proton pump inhibitors and on-label but expensive Dupixent.
Fun 2026 Prediction: Eupraxia Out-Licenses European Rights For EP-104GI
2025 was a tale of two times for Delcath Systems (Nasdaq: DCTH). The company started the year riding a wave of investor optimism, with strong FY2024 and 1Q2025 Hepzato numbers pushing the equity to a four-year high. However, the announcement of its participation in Medicaid’s National Drug Rebate Agreement (NDRA), followed by guidance missteps, eroded the equity in the second half of the year. Fortunately, Delcath appears poised for a healthy rebound in 2026. We believe they have understated their FY2025 guidance, setting them up for a modest beat when they report in March. The company should return to a healthy pace of growth for the remainder of FY2026, aided by the positive CHOPIN data released in October. Delcath may not offer the violent upside (or downside) potential of the development-stage names we tend to focus on, but it feels like an obvious name for a healthy rebound in 2026, unless, of course, our bold assertion from our May 19th note comes true…
Fun 2026 Prediction: Delcath Is Acquired
Last January, we highlighted Ventyx Biosciences (Nasdaq: VTYX) as having arguably the most data-rich catalyst schedule for 2025 among companies in our universe. During the year, Ventyx released data from two Phase 2 studies, first in PD and, most recently, in obesity, using its CNS-penetrant NLRP3 inhibitor VTX3232, while postponing data for its peripherally restricted NLRP3 inhibitor VTX2735 in recurrent pericarditis (RP) until 1Q2026. With the VTX2735 postponement, investors will get one data catalyst from Ventyx in 2026, but this year is really about business development. Sanofi has a right of first negotiation for VTX3232, but its interest lies predominantly in its neurodegenerative potential. Meanwhile, the October data from the obesity study demonstrated the broader potential application of VTX3232 in cardiovascular disease (CVD), an area where Sanofi appears to have limited interest.
In our view, the path forward with Sanofi appears tenuous. Ventyx has publicly shared limited data from its small PD Phase 2 study with VTX3232, making it difficult to assess how compelling the results were or whether they are sufficient to motivate Sanofi to proceed. In the meantime, Ventyx has been vocally advocating that the biomarker data from the obesity study indicate a path forward for VTX3232 in CVD. In other words, Ventyx expects a partner to pay not only for VTX3232’s neurodegenerative potential but also for its CVD potential. Throw in the added complication of VTX2735, which is also being developed for CVD indications, albeit more niche, and the path forward for a VTX3232 licensing deal between Ventyx and Sanofi looks complicated. That’s not to suggest another partner or acquirer doesn’t appear; we just question whether it will be Sanofi.
Fun 2026 Prediction: Ventyx Does Not Consummate A Licensing Deal With Sanofi
It’s been a while since we last discussed Cybin (Nasdaq: CYBN), but the stock has rebounded nicely over the past month. The company recently made a dramatic leadership change, replacing CEO Doug Drysdale with Cybin’s co-founder, Eric So, on an interim basis while it conducts an executive search. Shortly after, the company completed an $175 ($6.51/share) registered direct offering, with participation from Venrock, OrbiMed, Point72, and other notable biotech-focused funds. Cybin used part of the proceeds from this financing to repay the convertible debentures issued in an unpopular June financing, thereby extinguishing all its debt obligations.
After countless delays, likely due to balance sheet concerns, Cybin appears to be finally on track to report top-line data from its Phase 2 generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) study with CYB004 in 1Q2026. Then, before the end of the year, it is expected to report top-line data from the first of its two Phase 3 studies with CYB003 in major depressive disorder (MDD). Cybin joins its psychedelic peers, Compass Pathways (Nasdaq: CMPS) and MindMed (Nasdaq: MNMD), who will also report pivotal data this year in treatment-resistant depression (TRD) and in GAD and TRD, respectively. This year is shaping up as a defining year for psychedelic drug developers, and we continue to favor Cybin’s unique focus on MDD relative to its peers, who are predominantly focused on TRD.
Fun 2026 Prediction: A Large BioPharma Acquires A Psychedelic Company, Lifting The Class